Quote from Carmine_Difazio on 07/15/06 at 11:04am:

Gas prices aren't rising, really, when you look at it from a worldwide perspective. What is happening is that the value of the dollar is falling again, with the result that with oil prices remaining firm worldwide, it takes more US Dollars to pay for the same amount of oil. Note that this will also mean that it will take more US dollars to pay for other imported items, such as vacuums made in China, Malaysia, Korea, Japan, and Europe. Since the Chinese currency doesn't float freely, it will have the least effect on Chinese products, and the most effect on products such as Sebo, Miele, etc. where the smaller parent company can't absorb currency fluctuations for long periods.
 
As the coming depression edges ever closer, we should be in the last stages of the economic cycle. Baby boomers should still have sufficient discretionary income to buy higher priced vacuums like Miele, Dyson, Oreck, or central systems, if they believe it is the best out there. Three years from now the market will be very different.

It remains true that over the last couple years, Best Buy has outperformed WMT, and most other retailers:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BBY&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=wmt,shld,bbby
If you look at a longer period of time, like 15 years, the difference is even more dramatic:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BBY&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=wmt,shld,bbby
While Best Buy seems to be well run, rather than attributing this to their management, I would attribute it as much as anything to the demographic cycle and market sector. Aging baby boomers, hooked on electronics, with rising incomes, have been a recipe for dramatic growth in a hot segment, while Walmart was in a more conservative general retailing sector, including groceries. WMT performed well within their sector, but their sector is not as volatile as electronics:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=my&s=TGT&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=wmt+wndxq.pk
 
Volatility can be your friend on the upside, but it can also work against you when the market turns they other direction. If I were forced to put money into retail stocks, I would pick a grocery company over electronics at this point in the economic cycle. Another choice might be auto parts, but unfortunately all the major autoparts companies are heavily leveraged, and not well prepared for an economic downturn.
 
Are gas prices having an impact on the economy? Yes, but the effect is not evenly distributed across the economy. It is especially true at the lower end of the economy that a difference in gas prices will affect discretionary spending. We see that in our tanning business, for example, where business falls off whenever gas prices spike. On the other hand, as people adapt to the higher prices, the spending seems to come back fairly quickly.  Our sales in May-June were under budget, for example, following the drop of the dollar in April, but July has been strong. We are up about 6% year to date, not too bad considering the average tanning business is off about 20% this year, from what I hear.  In drycleaning, by contrast, spending comes from a higher income group, and those people do not seem to have been impacted by the higher gas prices yet.  In drycleaning we are off about 4% year to date, but we closed two stores, so same-store sales are actually up significantly. In fact, you can attribute most of our revenue decline to the fact that we have lost a significant amout of revenue as the Army Reserve has switched to a new fatigue that doesn't require pressing. We do not see any indication of volume changes related to gas prices at this point.  
 
Applying my experience, I would expect to see that high end vacuums are less affected by gas prices than lower end models. As for Central, given that Central vacuums are largely sold into the new construction market, and given that new home construction is starting to wind down into a halt that will last about 20 years, I wouldn't be too optimistic about central vacuum sales in the next several years. Typically home buyers buy a new home every 7 years starting about age 25-30 and ending about age 40-48, and given that most baby boomers are at the end of that cycle, there won't be another major need for new upper end homes again until the follow on baby boom, now 15, reaches about 35-40.
 
As for whether gas prices reach $80-100 a barrel this year, I think it largely depends on how fast the dollar loses value. I think that the major countries will support the dollar about about 80, a major psychological level, and a fourty year low. They supported it at that level the last time the currency was this low, and assuming that they are sucessful, you won't see oil prices at the levels you discussed.  If you ignore the effect of the falling dollar, oil prices really aren't changing very much. Note that natural gas prices, most of which are produced in the US and not affected by the dollar value, are actually lower than they were at this time last year.  
 
For me forecasting oil prices into years ahead is difficult. Worldwide oil production is peaking, and will not be expanding. If you project continued worldwide economic prosperity into the years ahead, then given fixed production, it is easy to project dramatically rising prices. If, like me, you project a major worldwide depression, then the projection is not so easy, because demand may actually fall enough to more than compensate for the lack of production increases. I have no opinion on whether oil prices will rise or fall in years ahead, after adjusting for inflation.
 

Hi Moose , Thanks for your reply, I hope your knowledge on design carries you far. Stick with it.  
 
You know whats funny is that i just got done servicing a panasonic canister mc772, the machine runs and sounds like the day it was made, Panasoic always gave a good machine for the money.
 
regards.
 
 O.T.

I have answered your questions via PM.

Quote from Carmine_Difazio on 07/27/06 at 7:48am:

What would you estimate the annual cost to keep a vac running a lifetime?