Hi MOLE:
The quick and short answer: Graphically depicted, the recovery will not be a "V" or even a "U" but an "L."
Unfortunately, homo sapiens have to lose it, then find it again, in order to appreciate and savor its value.
We'll see euphoria in January 2009, after President Obama's inauguration, spike the markets higher. It will be short-lived. Reality will set in, people will learn that he does not have all the answers, like FDR didn't, and the markets will go back down for the long count. Retailer wise, Wal*Mart is the big winner in 2008 and in 2009. It is the only stock in the Dow 30 that is up this year. According to the latest survey data, WM, onced frequented by buyers with a annual household income of $40,000, upped their ante in 2008. Now, the average household income of WM shoppers is $65,000 annually. Consumers have "traded down" in their retail shopping and WM is the beneficiary. This latest news is the biggest positive retail surprise of the year. There are always winners and losers. WM is the big winner this year in the retail sector.
Similarly, the old Wall Street wisdom, buy and hold is dead. Doesn't work anymore. It's buy and sell. Trader is the name of the game.
Carmine D.
This message was modified Dec 26, 2008 by CarmineD
